Working Paper Series – Arab Planning Institute – The Impact of Euro-Mediteranean Partnerships on Trade Interests of the OIC Countries: Dr. Adil Abdulla.
Dr. Adil Abdulla
Using a measure of commodity composition of trade, that provides insights on the export potential of countries and the bilateral trade possibilities between them, it appears that the Euro-Med agreements are likely to have some negative impacts on some of the OIC members. The analysis also suggests that in order to take advantage of export possibilities and realize export potential, for all countries involved, the agreements should be carefully reviewed. This point is in agreements with what Laanatza (1997) suggested from her analysis of the contents of the agreements themselves. We should note, however, that while this work sheds some light onto the issue of the impact of the Euro-Med partnerships on OIC members, it is incomplete. More recent evidence should be reviewed in order to build a stronger picture of the trade possibilities of countries in the region. More decompositions of the data into various commodity groups are needed in order to make the effects more specific and the general picture more complete. A number of authors have been studying the determinants of actual bilateral trade. We are currently introducing the trade similarity index as an explanatory variable in such models. The benefit of doing this, for our interests here, is to find whether countries, in the region, with export potential have been able to turn that potential into actual exports.